Guess most of the people who invested money in the Facebook IPO are today down 50% of their original investment.

The smart money actually came in pre-IPO and cashed out when the stock listed.

I had called the price point correctly way back in May 2012!

The company itself did quite well by the IPO.

And made a killing recently by buying back (effectively) almost $2 billion worth of stock at $18/share.

Here’s what I tweeted recently:

The price hit $18 or so at its lowest and has now started climbing up again.

And if you actually bought at $18, your stock would be up 20% right now!!

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And why is this relevant on a domain blog?

Well think about it.

It’s the same with new TLDs.

If you can get the right keyword and cash out when demand is hot, you can make money.

Otoh, if you’re the one buying when the demand isn’t that hot, you’re going to end up holding the bag.

We’ve seen this with more than a few launches and this is about to be repeated 500+ times next year.

The smart money is already in, they’re the guys applying for the new tlds – Frank / Donuts / Radix / M&M / etc.

The people who will make money beyond them will be the guys who get sweetheart deals with registries to corner the best keywords.

They guys who come in during the landrush will be the ones holding the bag.

Remember, you heard it here first.

Please do let me know what you think of this prediction…

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